Ladies and gentlemen,
Excellencies,
Dear guests,

Welcome to our traditional spring party – it’s a good time to gather in the garden of the German Residence!

Perhaps the title of our reception today may seem a bit puzzling to you – like a math problem, or a question on an IQ test.

Of course, neither of these guesses is correct.

2025 is a special year, and I would like to take this occasion to briefly look back at the year 1945 – the world 80 years ago – after which I would like to reflect on our present-day and what could lie ahead.

1945 marks the end of World War II. It was the end of a man-made catastrophe and of mass atrocities on an almost incomprehensible scale. Europe, which for a long time saw itself as the apogee of civilisation, had fallen deeply into the pit of barbarism. During the Pacific War, the first use of nuclear weapons foreshadowed a new dimension of mass destruction.

Overall, it is estimated that more than 65 million people were killed in World War II, which was started by Germany; between 15 and 20 million died in the Pacific War. The largest number of casualties was in the Soviet Union, where approximately 27 million people lost their lives. More than six million Jews were murdered by the Germans.

For us Germans, 1945 meant unconditional surrender, total defeat – but also, liberation from fascism and Nazi tyranny, even though this led to a divided Germany.

At the same time, the year 1945 marks a beginning, the start of something new.

From 25 April, country representatives gathered at the United Nations Conference on International Organization in San Francisco to draft and sign the UN Charter. On 24 October, the United Nations came into existence.

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Schließen

Many will recognise these words from the preamble of the Charter, which define the ultimate goal of the UN – and I quote: „To save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.“ These words were written after two devastating World Wars had ended, stretching from 1914 to 1945 – which, by most estimates, had cost over 80 million lives globally.

War was no longer to be considered a legitimate „continuation of policy by other means“, as the famous quote by Carl von Clausewitz from the early 19^th century goes.

The UN Charter with its prohibition on the use of force as its cornerstone was the beginning of the „rules-based international order“ as we know it: a system in which conflicts shall be resolved by peaceful means, and where the rule of law applies, not the „law of the jungle“.

Even those who later broke the rules usually tried to justify their actions with legal arguments and thus acknowledged, in principle, the validity of the rules-based system.

Can this be called a success?

You may judge for yourself, by taking a look at the number of victims in conflicts after 1945:

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Of course, every death is one too many, as is the suffering of civilians in conflict regions, for instance in the Middle East today. But it was a remarkable decrease nonetheless.

As a European, I should pay tribute to another peace project, although it didn’t begin until a few years later: the European Union. The plain truth is that we created the EU to keep ourselves from killing each other. The good news is that, by and large, this has worked for Western Europe.

When the British historian Ian Kershaw wrote his history of Europe between 1914 and 1949, he chose the title „To Hell and Back“. I couldn’t think of a better way to describe the long and painful journey we have taken from 1945 to 2025.

But it’s not over.

One of the more famous misconceptions in political philosophy was the idea that, after the end of the Cold War, mankind had reached The End of History.

Far from it, we must now realise that peace and the international order as they evolved after World War II are at risk of disintegrating all around us with accelerating speed.

The factors are diverse – too many to mention them all here.

One aspect is that, in 1945, only 50 country representatives negotiated the UN Charter as the cornerstone of our current international system. Some therefore denounce it as reflecting mostly „Western“ values. While Western powers undoubtedly left their mark, it is also true that, with the acknowledgement of the right to self-determination, the UN became a driving force of decolonialisation. Many newly independent countries of the Global South joined its ranks. Today, it is the 143 reborn nations that constitute the majority of the UN General Assembly, and it is their interests and those of humanity as a whole that are enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement.

Any order needs an arbiter. Thus, questioning the authority of international courts and arbitrational tribunals does not help.

Nor does blatant violation of the UN Charter, committed by Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, by invading its neighbouring country Ukraine.

A return to a system where „might makes right“ may serve the interests of the mighty few, but it disregards the rights and legitimate concerns of everyone else.

In economic terms, a breakdown of the WTO-based global trading system with the risk of tariff wars and Black Mondays would surely make all of us poorer. After all, globalisation has brought concrete and tangible benefits to countries and people around the world, even though these effects have admittedly not always been evenly distributed.

That is what the question mark in our title represents – that our future, the future of planet Earth, is uncertain.

What I am convinced of is that, in a world as complex and globally intertwined as ours, we need more cooperation, not less. And we need full commitment and the best hearts and minds to tackle the challenges we face as mankind: climate change, armed conflict, poverty, humanitarian catastrophe, and hunger. The UN system might be far from perfect, and it might need reform, for instance regarding the Security Council or the International Financial Institutions. But I see no better framework for urgently needed cooperation in an interdependent world.

Amidst an overpowering sense of crisis, we should not forget the lessons of 1945.

Because, next time, our path might only take us to hell. Not back.

We should unite in shared determination to not let this happen. It is up to all of us as individuals to choose. And every choice matters.

Let me close with a personal remark from my own experience: When faced with a difficult situation, it is always good advice to take a step back, draw a deep breath and calm down. Our spring party offers the perfect place to relax and exchange thoughts.

So please take full advantage of this gathering, and enjoy the afternoon!